8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Mar 2004

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/05/2004

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Main Features
About this Release

MARCH KEY FIGURES

		Mar 04	Feb 04 to Mar 04
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	15,860.7	0.3
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	15,891.0	0.7

		Mar Qtr 04	Dec Qtr 03 to Mar Qtr 04
		$m	% change

Turnover, in volume terms
	Trend estimates	46,288.7	1.6
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	46,039.6	0.4

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate - % change

Quarterly turnover, in volume terms - Trend estimates
Graph: Quarterly turnover, in volume terms - Trend estimates

MARCH KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The monthly trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.3% in March 2004. This follows increases of 0.3% in February 2004 and 0.4% in January 2004.
The trend estimate increased in most states and territories. The largest increase was in Victoria (0.7%), while Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory recorded small falls. New South Wales was flat.
Over the three months to March 2004 the trend estimate rose by $158m. Food retailing (+$100m), Household good retailing (+$27m) and Hospitality and Services (+$26m) showed the largest increases.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.7% in March 2004 compared with February 2004. This follows a revised increase of 0.3% in February 2004.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, the estimate of turnover rose by 7.5% in March 2004 compared with February 2004. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) rose by 8.1%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) rose by 6.6%.
Turnover increased by 8.8% in March 2004 compared with March 2003. Chains and other large retailers increased by 5.4%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 13.4%.

VOLUME MEASURES

The trend volume measure of turnover rose by 1.6% in the March quarter 2004. This follows an increase of 2.0% in the December quarter 2003. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume measure rose by 0.4% in the March quarter 2004.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Quarterly chain volume data are shown in tables 14 and 15 of this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for March 2004 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	15,404.2	144.7
Change from preceding month ($m)	1,069.8	35.5
% change from preceding month (%)	7.5	0.3

Estimates for sampled businesses in the first month of each quarter can be influenced by the quarterly rotation of sampled businesses. This rotation is done to spread the reporting load across retailers and to ensure the sample remains representative of the population. At times, the businesses rotated into the sample can perform differently from the businesses they replace or those already in the sample. The potential impact of the quarterly rotation is reflected in the sampling errors for the relevant months.

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 30-34.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

SUMMARY COMMENTARY

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

The rate of trend growth was weak in both March and February 2004, following 12 months of moderate to strong growth. Food retailing continued its moderate trend growth. In March 2004, Department stores and Household good retailing had moderate trend growth while all other industries had weak growth or were in decline.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for the last 14 months. New South Wales has had moderate trend growth for the last 10 months. Victoria has had strong trend growth since December 2003, while the rate of growth for Queensland has been weakening since September 2003. South Australia had moderate growth in March 2004. The trend for Western Australia and Tasmania has been flat in recent months.

DEPARTMENT STORES

The rate of trend growth has generally increased since November 2003 but the seasonally adjusted estimate fell in March 2004. New South Wales and Queensland have had moderate trend growth over the last five months.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been a small decline in the trend for Clothing and soft good retailing in March 2004. New South Wales contributed the most to this decline, with strong growth in Western Australia offsetting. Turnover in Victoria and Queensland was relatively flat in March 2004.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing & soft good ret

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate growth in the trend since September 2003. Victoria and South Australia have experienced strong growth since December 2003, with New South Wales continuing its trend of moderate falls since November 2003.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There were small falls in the trend in each of the three months to March 2004. Strong growth in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia was offset by continuing falls in New South Wales, Queensland, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

The trend for Other retailing turnover continued to fall. In March 2004, Victoria, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory had growth, while New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia fell.

TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services)

The rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been the same as that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services) for the last four months.

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excl h&s)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

This industry has had weak to moderate trend growth in the last fourth months. In March 2004, Tasmania and Northern Territory were flat, the Australian Capital Territory was in decline and all other states had growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality & services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

The trend was flat in March and February 2004, following on from four months of weak to moderate growth. Food retailing has had moderate trend growth for the last 10 months. Department stores has had weak to moderate growth since August 2003 while Hospitality and services has had a declining rate of growth since September 2003. All other industries had continuing declines in March 2004.

VICTORIA

Trend growth has been moderate to strong over the past 15 months. Food retailing has had strong growth in the past four months, and in March 2004 contributed nearly 50% of the state's total trend growth. Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had strong growth in recent months.

QUEENSLAND

The rate of growth in the trend for Queensland continued to weaken from its peak in August 2003. Department stores continued its moderate growth. Recreational goods retailing and Other retailing have been in decline over the last four and five months, respectively. Most other industries had weak growth.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The rate of trend growth has weakened in the last four months. Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing continued their strong growth, with Other retailing continuing to be in decline. Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing fell in March 2004.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

For the last eight months there has been weak to moderate trend growth. Food retailing contributes approximately 40% of total turnover in the state and has continued to be flat.

TASMANIA

The trend growth has been weak for the last four months. Clothing and soft good retailing had strong growth in March 2004. This was offset by a fall in Recreational good retailing. Food retailing, Household good retailing and Hospitality and services were flat.