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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Aug 2004  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 14/10/2004   
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AUGUST KEY FIGURES

Aug 04
Jul 04 to Aug 04
Aug 03 to Aug 04
'000
% change
% change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
436.0
0.4
3.8
Seasonally adjusted
435.8
-0.6
. .
Original
405.8
. .
. .
Short-term resident departures
Trend
359.4
0.2
20.3
Seasonally adjusted
353.5
-2.1
. .
Original
349.1
. .
. .

. . not applicable

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures Short-term



AUGUST KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during August 2004 (436,000 movements) increased by 0.4% compared with July 2004. This followed monthly increases of 0.6% for both June and July 2004.
  • Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.7% higher than when the series last troughed in March 2004 (424,400 movements).
  • During August 2004, short-term resident departures (359,400 movements) increased by 0.2% compared with the previous month and followed revised increases of 0.7% for June and 0.4% for July 2004.
  • Short-term resident departures have recorded steady growth over the past year, however, recent estimates indicate this growth rate is slowing. Compared with August 2003 (298,700 movements), short-term resident departures are currently up by 20.3%.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals during August 2004 (435,800 movements) decreased of 0.6% compared with July 2004. This followed revised increases of 2.0% for June and 1.3% for July 2004.
  • Short-term resident departures for August 2004 (353,500 movements) decreased by 2.1% compared with July 2004 and followed a revised increase of 4.8% for June and a decrease 0.7% for July 2004.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, there were 405,800 short-term visitor arrival movements to Australia during August 2004.
  • There were 349,100 short-term resident departures during August 2004.


NOTES



EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for September 2004 will be available on the ABS web site on 18 October 2004. These estimates can be accessed by going to the AusStats web page <http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats> and selecting Publications & Data and then Main Features. Select 34 Migration and then Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 12 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

  • As of the November 2004 issue, this publication will only be available electronically. As a result of this change, overseas arrivals and departures data will be released earlier than previously advised. The revised release dates are presented above.
  • The presentation of information on countries is based on the Standard Australian Classification of Countries. This replaces the Australian Standard Classification of Countries for Social Statistics.
  • This publication has been reformatted. See paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
  • An additional section, Seasonally Adjusted and Trend Estimates, has been included in this publication. This section presents time-series graphs for short-term movements by selected source countries and destinations.
  • Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates have been revised as a result of the annual review of seasonal adjustment factors. See the Seasonally Adjusted and Trend Estimates section for more detail.


INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Chrissy Beruldsen on Canberra (02) 6252 5640.



MAIN FEATURES


TRAVEL BETWEEN NEW ZEALAND AND AUSTRALIA CONTINUES TO RISE

According to trend estimates, the number of short-term visitor arrivals from New Zealand have recorded steady monthly increases since March 2003. Currently, short term visitor arrivals from New Zealand (90,200 movements for August 2004) are 38% higher than when the series last troughed in February 2003 (65,100 movements).

Short-term visitor arrivals
Graph - Short-term visitor arrivals, New Zealand



Similarly, the number of short-term resident departures to New Zealand have also recorded steady growth since May 2003. During August 2004 there were 68,700 short-term resident departures to New Zealand, up 32% compared with when the series last troughed in April 2003 (52,000 movements).



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during August 2004. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with July 2004 and August 2003.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - August 2004

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jul 04 to Aug 04
Aug 03 to Aug 04
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
90.2
91.7
96.9
1.5
28.5
Japan
55.5
55.7
66.6
-0.2
-8.9
United Kingdom
58.0
57.4
39.4
0.3
2.5
United States of America
38.4
38.9
34.5
1.2
8.3
China
18.8
(a)np
17.6
-0.2
8.1
Korea
17.6
17.3
14.9
-0.3
-8.1
Singapore
19.8
19.7
14.5
-1.2
-12.2
Malaysia
15.6
16.4
13.6
2.3
1.1
Hong Kong
10.6
10.6
10.4
-1.8
-10.6
Germany
11.7
12.3
10.3
1.8
-2.2

(a) np Seasonally adjusted data for short-term visitor arrivals from China is of an unpublishable standard.



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates), for short-term resident departures during August 2004. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with July 2004 and August 2003.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - August 2004

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jul 04 to Aug 04
Aug 03 to Aug 04
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
68.7
67.7
61.8
1.3
25.4
United Kingdom
31.1
31.1
37.3
-0.5
14.6
Indonesia
26.4
24.5
30.5
-3.3
(a)np
United States of America
32.3
31.6
28.6
-
34.3
Fiji
13.9
14.2
14.8
-0.4
6.3
China
16.1
16.6
14.3
3.0
36.8
Thailand
14.2
14.1
14.1
-1.5
-2.7
Singapore
12.8
12.3
11.4
1.2
4.8
Malaysia
10.9
9.6
10.1
-1.8
8.8
Hong Kong
11.9
11.1
9.2
0.4
-0.7

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) np not available for publication, due to break in the trend series from December 2003.



PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 10,650 permanent (settler) arrivals into Australia during August 2004, an increase of 7% compared with August 2003 (9,930 movements). Settlers born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion (14%) followed by New Zealand (11%) and China (10%).


Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term arrivals data as it is known some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term arrivals in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).


There were 5,720 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during August 2004, an increase of 7% compared with August 2003 (5,350 movements).



STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section for more detail.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


ANNUAL REANALYSIS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates have been revised in this issue following the annual review of seasonal adjustment factors. An improved correction method has also been implemented to remove the effect of Chinese New Year, which generally falls in February but sometimes in January. See paragraph 23 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


In addition, more countries have been directly seasonally adjusted. This has resulted in revisions to the seasonally adjusted and trend totals for short-term visitor arrivals and resident departures, which are derived indirectly by summing component countries.



SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected Source Countries

The graphs presented below illustrate the impact of the 2003 Rugby World Cup on arrivals from the United Kingdom in the later half of 2003, and the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome on arrivals from Japan. Arrivals from the United States of America have been increasing over the last nine months.

Graph, Short-term visitor arrivals, United Kingdom

Graph - Short-term visitor arrivals, Japan

Graph - Short-term visitor arrivals, United States of America



SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

Whilst the trend in departures of Australian residents to New Zealand has continued to increase, departures to the United Kingdom and the United States of America appear to have plateaued. However, departures to Indonesia have declined gradually since April 2004.

Graph - Short-term resident departures, New Zealand

Graph, short-term resident departures, United Kingdom

Graph - Short-term resident departures, United States of America

Graph - Short-term resident departures, Indonesia

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