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8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Mar 2005  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/05/2005   
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MARCH KEY FIGURES

Mar 05
Feb 05 to Mar 05
$m
% change

Turnover at current prices
Trend estimates
16,495.0
0.1
Seasonally adjusted estimates
16,547.1
0.0

Mar Qtr 05
Dec Qtr 04 to Mar Qtr 05
$m
% change

Turnover, in volume terms
Trend estimates
49,129.5
-0.1
Seasonally adjusted estimates
49,251.2
0.8

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - percentage change

Quarterly turnover, in volume terms - Trend estimates
Graph: Quarterly turnover, in volume terms - Trend estimates



MARCH KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.1% in March 2005. This follows a revised estimate of 0.1% in February.
  • In March 2005, there was an increase in the Northern Territory (+0.7%), Tasmania (+0.3%), South Australia (+0.3%), New South Wales (+0.2%) and Queensland (+0.2%).
  • Over the three months to March 2005 the trend estimate increased by $46m. Department stores (+$44m), Clothing and soft good retailing (+$24m) and Household good retailing (+$21m) had the largest increases, while Hospitality and services (-$53m) and Other retailing (-$24m) decreased.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover was unchanged in March 2005. This followed an increase of 0.6% in February 2005 and 0.5% in January 2005.
  • New South Wales (+0.4%) and Queensland (+0.2%) were the only states to have an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate. Tasmania (-1.2%), Western Australia (-0.8%) and the two territories (-0.4% each) had the largest decreases.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 10.6% in March 2005 compared with February 2005. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 13.1%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 7.3%.
  • Australian turnover increased by 2.2% in March 2005 compared with March 2004. Chains and other large retailers increased by 9.1%, while 'smaller' retailers fell by 6.4%.


VOLUME MEASURES
  • The trend volume measure of turnover decreased by 0.1% in the March quarter 2005. This follows no change in the December quarter 2004. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume measure increased by 0.8% in the March quarter 2005.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUERelease Date
April 200531 May 2005
May 20051 July 2005
June 20052 August 2005
July 200530 August 2005
August 200530 September 2005
September 20053 November 2005



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Quarterly chain volume data are shown in tables 14 and 15 of this issue.



SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for March 2005 contained in this publication are:

Data Series
Estimate
Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)
16,098.1
128.3
Change from preceding month ($m)
1,548.7
32.8
% change from preceding month (%)
10.6
0.2


For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.



INDUSTRY TRENDS


MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


TOTAL RETAIL

There has been weak growth in the trend for three months. In March 2005, all industries except Other retailing and Hospitality and services had an increase in the trend. Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had moderate or strong growth for at least three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail



FOOD RETAILING

There has been weak trend growth for two months. There has been weak trend growth in New South Wales and Queensland for four months, South Australia for two months and Queensland and Tasmania in March 2005. The two territories have had moderate trend growth for at least two months while Western Australia has had a decline in the trend for seven months.

Graph: Industry trends_Food retailing



DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been strong growth in the trend for three months. New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia have also had strong growth in each of these months. Western Australia has had two months of strong growth and Queensland has had moderate growth for three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores



CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

After two months of moderate growth, there was strong growth in March 2005. There has been strong growth in Victoria and Tasmania for three months, the Northern Territory for two months and South Australia in March 2005. New South Wales, Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory have had at least three months of moderate growth in the trend.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing



HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

Growth in the trend has been slowing since October 2004, with weak growth for the last two months. After at least three months of moderate to strong growth, New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia had weak growth in March 2005. Victoria, Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory have had a decline in the trend for at least four months.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing



RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

After three months of moderate growth, there was weak growth in the trend in March 2005. Queensland and Western Australia have had four and nine months of strong growth respectively, while New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania have had a decline in the trend for two, 14 and seven months respectively.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing



OTHER RETAILING

The trend series has been in decline for seven months. All published states except New South Wales had a decline in the trend estimate in March 2005. Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory have been in decline for at least 12 months. After more than 12 months of being in decline, New South Wales had weak growth in March 2005.

Graph: Industry trends_Other retailing



TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had weak growth for three months. Over the last five months, the rate of trend growth has been stronger than that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)



HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

The trend has been in decline for ten months. New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have been in decline for at least six months. Queensland has had moderate trend growth for three months. Tasmania and the Northern Territory have had at least five months of strong growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services



STATE TRENDS


MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been weak trend growth for four months. There has been four months of strong growth for Department stores, moderate growth for Clothing and soft good retailing and weak growth for Food retailing. After six months of strong growth from July to December 2004, growth in Household good retailing has been slowing with weak growth in March 2005. Hospitality and services has been in decline for nine months.

Graph: State trends_New South Wales



VICTORIA

There has been no change in the trend for the last two months. Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have had a decline in the trend for at least four months. This has been offset by three months of strong growth in Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing and five months of weak growth in Food retailing.

Graph: State trends_Victoria



QUEENSLAND

There has been weak trend growth for two months. Recreational good retailing has had four months of strong growth. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services have had three months of moderate growth, while Household good retailing and Other retailing have been in decline for at least four months.

Graph: State trends_Queensland



SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been weak trend growth for four months. Department stores have had strong trend growth for three months. There has been varying levels of growth in Food retailing, Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing for six or more months. Hospitality and services has been in decline for 11 months.

Graph: State trends_South Australia



WESTERN AUSTRALIA

There has been a decline in the trend for six months. Food retailing and Other retailing have been in decline for at least five months, while Department stores and Recreational good retailing have had strong growth for two months and eight months respectively.

Graph: State trends_Western Australia



TASMANIA

After three months of moderate trend growth there was weak growth in March 2005. There has been moderate or strong growth in Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Hospitality and services for four, nine and six months respectively. The growth in food retailing has been slowing since December 2004 with weak growth in March 2005. Recreational good retailing have been in decline for six months.

Graph: State trends_Tasmania

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