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5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Sep 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/11/2006   
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SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

Sep Qtr 06
Jun Qtr 06 to Sep Qtr 06
Sep Qtr 05 to Sep Qtr 06
$m
% change
% change

Trend estimates(a)
Total new capital expenditure
18 383
-1.1
10.4
Buildings & structures
7 275
-0.5
22.4
Equipment, plant & machinery
11 075
-1.6
3.3
Seasonally adjusted(a)
Total new capital expenditure
17 847
-6.0
7.9
Buildings & structures
6 848
-11.8
14.8
Equipment, plant & machinery
10 981
-2.5
3.6

(a) In volume terms.

New Capital Expenditure, in volume terms
Graph: New Capital Expenditure in Volume Terms



SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS


ACTUAL EXPENDITURE (VOLUME TERMS)
  • The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure in the September quarter 2006 decreased 1.1%, remaining at high levels after 21 consecutive increases. Seasonally adjusted there was a large fall this quarter (6.0%), following five quarters of growth.
  • A seasonally adjusted decrease in building and structures (down 11.8%) has been the major contributor to the fall this quarter, mainly driven by Mining.
  • Seasonally adjusted expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery declined 2.5% this quarter. There has been a fall across all the broad industries, with Mining recording the largest fall of 11.5%.


EXPECTED EXPENDITURE (CURRENT TERMS)
  • This issue includes the fourth estimate for 2006-07.
  • Estimate 4 for 2006-07 is $69,870m, which is 10.3% higher than the comparable estimate for 2005-06 and 9.8% higher than the third estimate for 2006-07.
  • See pages 6 to 9 for further commentary on expectations data.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE (QUARTER) Release Date
December 2006 1 March 2007
March 2007 31 May 2007



CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

As happens each year, a seasonal re-analysis has been undertaken based on estimates up to and including the June quarter 2006. As part of this year's re-analysis, a number of the aggregation structures were amended to bring the seasonal adjustment methodology more into line with that used for the equivalent National Accounts series. This has resulted in revisions to seasonally adjusted estimates for most time series in this release.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Heather Jackson on Sydney (02) 9268 4357.



ACTUAL NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE IN VOLUME TERMS


TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

The trend estimate for total capital expenditure in the September quarter decreased 1.1%, but remains at a high level after 21 consecutive increases. Seasonally adjusted there was a large fall this quarter (6.0%), following five quarters of growth. Buildings and structures recorded the strongest decrease (down 12%) and is driven by Mining.

Graph: Total Capital Expenditure, CVM



BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

The trend estimate for buildings and structures decreased 0.5% this quarter, the first fall in 18 quarters. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate decreased 11.8% following strong growth in the last 4 quarters. The decrease this quarter is mainly driven by Mining.

Graph: Building, CVM



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

The trend estimate for equipment, plant and machinery decreased 1.6% in the September quarter 2006, the second consecutive fall. In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate has decreased by 2.5%, the third consecutive decline, following three quarters of growth. There has been a fall across all the broad industries, with Mining recording the largest fall of 12%.

Graph: Equipment, Plant and Machinery, CVM



MINING

The trend estimate for Mining decreased 3.4% this quarter, the first decrease in eight quarters. In seasonally adjusted terms, there was a large fall of 16.6%, after five quarters of strong growth. Both asset types have declined, with building and structures falling 19% and equipment, plant and machinery 12%.

Graph: Mining, CVM



MANUFACTURING

The trend estimate for Manufacturing has decreased 4.3% this quarter, the third consecutive fall. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate has decreased 2.5% which is the fourth consecutive fall. A decrease in expenditure on both asset types contributed to the fall.

Graph: Manufacturing, CVM



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

The trend estimate for Other selected industries has increased 0.2%. In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate decreased 1.3% with declines in expenditure on both asset types.

Graph: Other Selected Industries, CVM

ACTUAL AND EXPECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE


FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES

The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6. Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in paragraphs 24 to 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:


Table: Composition of estimate



TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

The fourth estimate for 2006-07 is $69,870m which is 10.3% higher than the comparable estimate for 2005-06 and 9.8% higher than the third estimate for 2006-07. This increase has been in both building and structures and equipment, plant and machinery and is across the majority of industries with Mining (11%), Property and business services (11%) and Transport and storage (31%) recording the highest increases.


Graph: Total Capital Expenditure



BUILDING AND STRUCTURES

Estimate 4 for 2006-07 is 28.6% higher than Estimate 4 for 2005-06 and 10.9% higher than Estimate 3. Mining (12%) and Transport and storage (69%) have had strong increases this quarter. Small increases in Property and business and Other Services, have been mainly offset by Retail and Wholesale.


Graph: Buiding and Structures



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

The fourth estimate for 2006-07 is 1.8% lower than the comparable estimate for 2005-06 but 8.9% higher than Estimate 3 for 2006-07. With the exception of Construction, all industries have increased since Estimate 3, with Property and business (15%), Transport (12%), Retail (13%) and Wholesale (18%) recording the strongest increases.


Graph: Equipment, Plant and Machinery



MINING

Estimate 4 for 2006-07 is 38.3% higher than the comparable estimate for 2005-06 and 10.6% higher than Estimate 3 for 2006-07. Both building and structures (13%) and equipment, plant and machinery (6%) increased.


Graph: Mining



MANUFACTURING

Estimate 4 for 2006-07 is 13.3% lower than Estimate 4 for 2005-06 and 4.6% higher than Estimate 3 for 2006-07. The increase is driven by equipment, plant and machinery (7%), with a relatively flat result in buildings and structures.


Graph: Manufacturing



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

Estimate 4 for 2006-07 is the highest estimate 4 on record and is 8.6% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2005-06. Estimate 4 has increased 11.3% from Estimate 3. Both buildings and structures (13%) and equipment, plant and machinery (10%) increased. All components of Other selected industries recorded increases, with the exception of Construction, the strongest movement coming from Transport (31%) and Property and business services (11%).


Graph: Other Selected  Industries
EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE


IN CURRENT PRICE TERMS


PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE SERIES

The projected series below apply historical realisation ratios to contemporary expectations to convert these to quarterly figures. Trend estimates of resultant quarterly time series of actual and expected expenditure are produced.


The following graphs, with accompanying commentary, show the projected capital expenditure series based on September quarter 2006 data, which includes expected expenditure up to and including the June quarter 2007. Please see paragraphs 29 to 33 of the Explanatory Notes for further details about the methodology and cautionary notes for these series.



TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Current price trend estimate for total Capital Expenditure have increased sharply over the last two financial years and have flattened out this quarter driven by Mining and Manufacturing. Estimates for the remainder of this financial year continue to suggest that the trend will flatten out over 2006-07. A fall in projected expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery estimates offsets a small increase in buildings and structures projected expenditure.

Graph: Projected Total Expenditure



BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

Current price trend estimates for buildings and structures have displayed sustained growth over the past few years, flattening out over the past two quarters. Expectations for the remainder of the financial year suggest that this growth rate is projected to increase towards the end of 2006-07.

Graph: Projected Building Expenditure



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

Current price trend estimates for equipment, plant and machinery have shown strong growth over the past two financial years, with the growth rate falling over the past two quarters. Expectations indicate that expenditure will continue to fall over the remainder of the 2006-07 financial year.

Graph: Projected Equipment Expenditure



MINING

Current price trend estimates for Mining have increased sharply over the 2005-06 financial year being driven by growth on buildings and structures. Expectations suggest that spending will flatten out over the first half of this financial year but will sustain recent high levels of expenditure throughout 2006-07.

Graph: Projected Mining Expenditure



MANUFACTURING

Current price trend estimates for Manufacturing look to have reached a peak in 2005-06. Recent quarters and expectations suggest that the expenditure will weaken considerably over the current financial year.

Graph: Projected Manufacturing Expenditure



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

Current price trend estimates for Other selected industries have had a steady growth rate over recent years. Expectations suggest that this growth will continue steadily over the next financial year.

Graph: Projected Other Selected Industries Expenditure




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