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3401.0.55.001 - Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia, Jul 2006  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 17/08/2006   
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NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
August 2006 19 September 2006
September 2006 18 October 2006
October 2006 16 November 2006
November 2006 18 December 2006
December 2006 17 January 2007
January 2007 16 February 2007



DATA NOTES

The estimates presented in this publication provide an early indication of short-term visitor arrival movements prior to final data becoming available for the reference month. Monthly data prior to the reference month are final estimates. The ABS encourages users of these data to refer to the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) for final ABS estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for the reference period. Final estimates for July 2006 will be released on 4 September 2006.


This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See Explanatory Note 6.


Calculations of percentage and numeric change as shown in the Main Features of this publication are based on unrounded data. See Explanatory Note 10.


Original estimates are influenced by seasonal and one-off or irregular factors which may distort interpretations of the underlying growth in the series. Therefore, the ABS encourages the use of the trend estimates for time series analysis. See the Demography Working Paper 2004/2 - Interpretation and Use of Overseas Arrivals and Departures Estimates (cat. no. 3106.0.55.002).


Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates are subject to revision, particularly at the current end of the series, due to additional original information becoming available. See Explanatory Notes 14 to 17.



REVISIONS

As previously advised in the June 2006 issue of Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0), revisions to October 2005 movement data have also been incorporated in this release and associated time series spreadsheets and data files.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.



MAIN FEATURES


TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for July 2006 (451,600 movements) decreased by 0.6% compared with June 2006 (454,200 movements). This was the same percentage decrease recorded in the months of May and June 2006 (each 0.6%).


Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.4% lower than in July 2005.



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia for July 2006 (450,900 movements) decreased by 1.9% compared with June 2006 (459,600 movements). This followed a monthly decrease of 3.6% for May 2006 and a monthly increase of 3.2% for June 2006.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals Short-term




ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms there were an estimated 491,900 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during July 2006.

TABLE 1: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT, VISITOR ARRIVALS(a) - July 2006

Jul 06
Jun 06 to Jul 06
Jul 05 to Jul 06
'000
% change
% change

Trend
451.6
-0.6
-1.4
Seasonally adjusted
450.9
-1.9
. .
Original
491.9
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Trend and seasonally adjusted estimates may be revised each month. See Explanatory Notes 14 to 17.

TABLE 2: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT(a), VISITOR ARRIVALS - Country of Residence(b)

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Jun 06
Jul 06
Jun 06 to Jul 06
Jul 05 to Jul 06
Jun 06
Jul 06
Jun 06 to Jul 06
Jul 06
Country of residence
'000
'000
% change
% change
'000
'000
% change
'000

OCEANIA & ANTARCTICA
New Zealand
90.1
89.8
-0.4
-2.4
92.0
88.6
-3.7
105.5
Total
102.0
101.8
-0.2
-0.8
103.6
101.0
-2.5
118.0
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Germany
12.7
12.6
-1.1
0.8
12.6
12.3
-1.9
12.7
Netherlands
4.2
4.3
0.4
1.6
4.2
4.4
5.0
5.5
Sweden
3.1
3.1
-1.0
3.9
2.9
2.9
-2.0
1.8
Switzerland
3.7
3.7
-0.9
3.3
3.4
3.7
7.9
3.3
United Kingdom
57.9
56.9
-1.8
-3.3
56.7
55.6
-1.8
44.0
Total
98.8
97.6
-1.2
-1.5
97.2
96.1
-1.1
88.9
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
Italy
4.3
4.4
2.0
5.1
4.6
4.5
-0.6
5.6
Total
10.5
10.6
1.0
6.7
10.9
10.6
-2.3
11.6
NORTH AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
Total
6.6
6.7
2.3
14.0
7.4
6.7
-9.3
14.8
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Indonesia
6.5
6.4
-2.1
-7.3
6.1
6.2
1.9
8.1
Malaysia
11.8
11.8
0.2
-16.4
12.3
12.9
4.3
11.5
Philippines
3.2
3.2
0.8
11.1
3.1
3.2
5.4
3.0
Singapore
20.0
19.5
-2.3
-16.7
19.9
19.4
-2.5
16.3
Thailand
6.0
6.0
-0.3
-7.0
6.2
6.0
-3.0
6.8
Total
50.5
50.1
-0.7
-10.8
50.4
51.4
2.0
50.0
NORTH-EAST ASIA
China
25.5
25.3
-1.1
15.7
25.3
24.7
-2.5
31.8
Japan
50.5
49.8
-1.4
-9.6
53.7
50.9
-5.3
51.2
Korea
21.3
21.4
0.6
1.3
22.4
20.9
-6.6
23.9
Taiwan
7.1
7.0
-0.8
-27.7
7.3
8.0
8.9
11.1
Total
117.8
116.9
-0.8
-4.1
121.6
118.1
-2.9
135.3
AMERICAS
Canada
9.7
9.8
0.5
13.7
9.4
9.9
5.2
8.4
United States of America
39.1
38.8
-0.7
3.1
38.8
38.1
-1.8
46.0
Total
52.5
52.2
-0.5
6.3
52.1
51.6
-1.0
58.6
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
South Africa
4.7
4.8
1.2
13.9
4.7
5.0
5.9
4.1
Total
6.3
6.4
1.6
13.8
6.4
6.8
6.6
6.3
Total(c)
454.2
451.6
-0.6
-1.4
459.6
450.9
-1.9
491.9

(a) This table presents a summary of the most recent overseas arrivals and departures estimates. Time series data for months earlier than those presented in this table are available as time series spreadsheets from the ABS web site.
(b) Data for the current month are statistically modelled on passport movements and past arrival trends from passenger cards. Monthly data prior to the current month are estimates based on passenger card data.
(c) Includes Southern and Central Asia and not stated/inadequately described.


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