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5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Jun 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/08/2007   
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12/10/2007 Note: Time Series Spreadsheets, Table 5c

The trend break adjustment required for the March 2007 quarter estimates was not applied to the individual State building and structures data in this table. (Plant and equipment and total trend estimates are correct). The effect of this is that calculated movements for all quarters except the December to March movement will be correct, but the levels prior to March quarter will be revised down. This is correct for all series except for Northern Territory movements between December 1999 and March 2000 and December 2000 and March 2001. December 2006 to March 2007 movements should not be used in any case as they involve pre- and post-privatisation data for Telstra. Amended data will be released with the release of the September 2007 issue of this publication on 29 November 2007.


JUNE KEY FIGURES


Jun Qtr 07
Mar Qtr 07 to Jun Qtr 07
Jun Qtr 06 to Jun Qtr 07
$m
% change
% change

Trend estimates(a)
Total new capital expenditure
20 685
5.3
11.8
Buildings & structures
8 392
5.9
15.6
Equipment, plant & machinery
12 247
4.5
8.9
Seasonally adjusted(a)
Total new capital expenditure
20 967
6.3
11.4
Buildings & structures
8 487
4.3
9.9
Equipment, plant & machinery
12 400
5.5
12.2

(a) In volume terms.

New Capital Expenditure, in volume terms
Graph: New Capital Expenditure in Volume Terms



JUNE KEY POINTS


ACTUAL EXPENDITURE (VOLUME TERMS)
  • The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure (in volume terms) increased by 5.3% in the June quarter 2007 while the seasonally adjusted estimate increased by 6.3%.
  • The equipment, plant and machinery trend volume estimate increased 4.5% in the June quarter 2007. In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate rose 5.5%.
  • The trend estimate for buildings and structures increased 5.9% this quarter while the seasonally adjusted estimate increased 4.3%.


EXPECTED EXPENDITURE (CURRENT TERMS)
  • This issue includes the seventh estimate for 2006-07 and the third estimate for 2007-08.
  • The final estimate for 2006-07 is $77,341m, which is 6.5% higher than the comparable estimate for 2005-06 and 1.3% lower than the sixth estimate for 2006-07. The increase since 2005-06 is mainly driven by an 18.6% increase in Mining and the privatisation of Telstra.
  • The third estimate for 2007-08 is $79,166m. This is 24.4% higher than the third estimate for 2006-07. Estimate 3 is 11.5% higher than the second estimate for 2007-08.
  • See pages 6 to 9 for further commentary on expectations data.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE (QUARTER) Release Date
September 2007 29 November 2007
December 2007 28 February 2008



FORTHCOMING CHANGES

Recently, the ABS has implemented improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by the use of ARIMA modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process. This collection will use, from the 2007 annual seasonal reanalysis, concurrent seasonal adjustment with ARIMA modelling where applicable to reduce the level of revision to seasonally adjusted capital expenditure estimates.


A new reference year is typically updated annually every June quarter. From 2007 onwards the updating of the reference year will be completed in the September quarter each year. In September 2007 the new reference year will be 2005-06 for chain volume estimates. This will result in revisions to growth rates in quarters following 2005-06 but will preserve additivity in those quarters. For earlier periods re-referencing affects the levels of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Scott Johnston on Sydney (02) 9268 4357.


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