LABOUR FORCE COMMENTARY JANUARY 2014


NATIONAL ESTIMATES

Australia's unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.0% in January 2014 (seasonally adjusted) when calculated using unrounded estimates, while in trend terms the unemployment rate increased by less than 0.1 percentage points to 5.9% in January 2014. The number of unemployed persons increased by 16,600 to 728,600 in January 2014 (seasonally adjusted), while in trend terms the number of unemployed persons in January 2014 rose by 5,200 to 717,700.

January 2014 saw the seasonally adjusted participation rate remain steady at 64.5%, following a revision to the December 2013 estimate. The trend participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 64.5% in January 2014.

The seasonally adjusted number of employed persons decreased by 3,700 in January 2014 to 11,459,500 persons. In trend terms, employment decreased by 1,600 persons to 11,466,900 persons in January 2014. The employment to population ratio, which expresses the number of employed persons as a percentage of the civilian population aged 15 years and over, decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 60.6% (seasonally adjusted). The trend employment to population ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 60.7%.

Seasonally adjusted full-time employment fell in January 2014, down 7,100 persons to 7,953,000 persons, while part-time employment increased by 3,400 persons to 3,506,500 persons. The decrease in total employment resulted from:

• a decrease in male full-time employment, down 5,400 persons
• a decrease in female full-time employment, down 1,700 persons
• a decrease in female part-time employment, down 1,400 persons
• an increase in male part-time employment, up 4,800 persons.

Seasonally adjusted aggregate hours increased by 20.5 million hours (1.3%) in January 2014 to 1,635.8 million hours.


STATE ESTIMATES

The largest absolute decrease in seasonally adjusted employment was in Queensland, down 11,600 persons. The largest absolute increases in seasonally adjusted employment were in New South Wales (up 8,400 persons) and Victoria (up 7,300 persons). Seasonally adjusted estimates are not published for the territories.

Unemployment rate, State and Territories, December 2013 and January 2014
	Trend		Seasonally Adjusted
	December	January	December	January
	%	%	%	%
New South Wales	5.8	5.8	5.8	5.8
Victoria	6.3	6.4	6.2	6.4
Queensland	5.9	5.9	5.9	6.1
South Australia	6.7	6.7	6.8	6.6
Western Australia	4.6	4.7	4.6	5.1
Tasmania	7.6	7.6	7.6	7.6
Northern Territory	4.3	4.0	np	np
Australian Capital Territory	3.9	3.8	np	np
Australia	5.8	5.9	5.8	6.0
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated

ABOUT THE DATA

Rebenchmarking Labour Force estimates to the 2011 Census of Population Census and Housing

Estimates of persons employed, unemployed and not in the labour force add to independent population benchmarks for age groups, sex and regions. These population benchmarks are based on the Estimated Resident Population (ERP) which reflects Census of Population and Housing data adjusted for under-enumeration and updated for births, deaths, interstate migration and net overseas migration.

From this issue, Labour Force estimates from July 1991 are compiled using population benchmarks based on ERP revised following the 2011 Census. These revised population benchmarks have been introduced concurrently with the introduction of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard.

For further information, refer to the Rebenchmarking Labour Force estimates to the 2011 Census of Population Census and Housing article in this issue and to the Information Paper: Regional Labour Force Statistics (cat. no. 6262.0).


Revisions to aggregate hours worked series

The seasonally adjusted and trend aggregate hours worked series have been revised. These revisions, back to the beginning of the time series are a result of the following:

• rebenchmarking labour force estimates to the 2011 Census of Population and Housing;
• benchmarking to annual aggregate hours estimates for financial year 2013-14. This was originally scheduled to occur with the July 2013 issue, and resulted in a small downward shift in level, but did not significantly alter month to month movements;
• an annual seasonal reanalysis of all aggregate hours worked series.

The overall revision to calendar year 2013 was approximately -1.4%, with the largest annual revision of approximately -1.5% relating to calendar year 2011. Revisions prior to 1991 are minimal as revised ERP excludes this period.