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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2012 June 153 243 1.0 153 243 1.0 153 243 1.0 September 153 978 0.5 153 994 0.5 154 176 0.6 December 154 330 0.2 154 336 0.2 154 275 0.1 2013 March 154 454 0.1 154 609 0.2 153 735 -0.3

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.4% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.4% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2012 June 62 822 -3.0 62 822 -3.0 62 822 -3.0 September 62 338 -0.8 62 042 -1.2 62 370 -0.7 December 62 302 -0.1 62 385 0.6 62 271 -0.2 2013 March 62 567 0.4 63 638 2.0 62 059 -0.3