ACTUAL AND EXPECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES

The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6. Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in paragraphs 25 to 28 of the Explanatory Notes.

The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:

TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Estimate 5 for total capital expenditure for 2008-09 is $98,145 million. This is 14.3% higher than Estimate 5 for 2007-08. Estimate 5 is 4.4% lower than Estimate 4 for 2008-09 after sustained growth in the estimate for 2008-09 in the three preceding quarters. Expectations for the first half of 2009 were 8.5% lower in the December quarter survey than when collected in the September quarter.

Estimate 1 for total capital expenditure for 2009-10 is $79,866 million. This is 0.6% higher than Estimate 1 for 2008-09. By industry, Estimate 1 for Mining is 9.4% higher than the same estimate for 2008-09, while for Other selected industries, Estimate 1 is 8.0% lower than in 2008-09.

BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

Estimate 5 for buildings and structures for 2008-09 is $52,362 million which is 21.2% higher than Estimate 5 for buildings and structures for 2007-08. Transport (73.2%) and Mining (27.0%) showed strong growth in the year between these estimates. Estimate 5 is 5.8% lower than Estimate 4 for 2008-09. Estimate 5 for Mining buildings and structures is $3,246m lower than Estimate 4 compared to a total change of -$3,235m.

Estimate 1 for buildings and structures for 2009-10 is $44,689 million. This is 6.7% higher than Estimate 1 for 2008-09. Estimates 1 for buildings and structures for Transport (79.6%), Manufacturing (61.5%) and Mining (7.1%) have all risen strongly in dollar and percentage terms in the year while Estimate 1 for Other services is 32.8% lower than it was for Estimate 1 2008-09.



EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

Estimate 5 for equipment, plant and machinery for 2008-09 is $45,784 million. This is 7.3% higher than the same estimate for 2007-08. Transport (38.7%) and Mining (28.5%) were the major drivers of this increase. Estimate 5 for equipment, plant and machinery is 2.8% lower than Estimate 4 for 2008-09. Mining (-13.8%) decreased most significantly between these estimates.

Estimate 1 for equipment, plant and machinery for 2009-10 is $35,177 million. This is 6.2% lower than the same estimate in the previous year. Weakness in Property and Business Services (-25.5%) and Manufacturing (-16.4%) have contributed most to this decline between estimates.



MINING

Estimate 5 for Mining for 2008-09 is $38,206 million. This is 27.3% higher than Estimate 5 for the previous year. Equipment, plant and machinery rose 28.5% and the larger buildings and structures asset class rose 27.0%. Estimate 5 fell 11.1% when compared to Estimate 4 of 2008-09. Both buildings and structures and equipment were weaker. The actual expenditure for the December quarter 2008 was 14.7% lower than indicated by expectations collected in the September quarter. Comparing expectations for the first half of 2009 collected in the September quarter to the same expectations collected in the current quarter, there has been a fall of 13.1%.

Estimate 1 for Mining for 2009-10 for is $33,460 million. This is 9.4% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2008-09. Equipment, the smaller asset class, has risen by 17.4% while building and structures has risen by 7.1%.

MANUFACTURING

Estimate 5 for Manufacturing for 2008-09 is $13,066 million. This is 0.4% lower than the corresponding estimate for 2007-08. Estimate 5 for Manufacturing 2008-09 fell 7.3% on Estimate 4 for 2008-09. Equipment, plant and machinery fell 7.0% between these estimates while buildings and structures fell 7.8%. Expectations for the first half of 2009 are down 14.6% since measured in the September quarter survey.

Estimate 1 for Manufacturing for 2009-10 is $11,560 million. This is 5.7% higher than Estimate 1 for 2008-09. The building and structures asset class has risen strongly in this period (61.5%) while equipment, plant and machinery fell 16.4%.



OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

Estimate 5 for Other selected industries for 2008-09 is $46,873 million. This is 9.7% higher than Estimate 5 for 2007-08. Estimate 5 is 2.7% higher than Estimate 4 for 2008-09. Transport ($540.1m) and Property and Business ($552.4m) have both recorded actual expenditure for December quarter which significantly exceeded the levels indicated by short term expectations collected in the September survey. By asset class, equipment, plant and machinery rose 3.0% while buildings and structures rose 2.2%.

Estimate 1 for 2009-10 is at $34,846 million, which is 8.0% lower than the previous Estimate 1. Building and structures is 5.3% lower and equipment, plant and machinery 9.7% lower than Estimate 1 for 2008-09.