WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.
The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:
1 The June 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the May 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.
2 The June 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the May 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.
The percentage change chosen is the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data.
Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments
| |
 | | | What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate: |
| Trend as published | (1) rises by 2.1% on this month | (2) falls by 2.1% on this month |
| no. | % change | no. | % change | no. | % change |
|
| November 2017 | 55 581 | -0.7 | 55 581 | -0.7 | 55 581 | -0.7 |
| December 2017 | 55 017 | -1.0 | 54 991 | -1.1 | 55 032 | -1.0 |
| January 2018 | 54 421 | -1.1 | 54 364 | -1.1 | 54 436 | -1.1 |
| February 2018 | 53 862 | -1.0 | 53 831 | -1.0 | 53 867 | -1.0 |
| March 2018 | 53 345 | -1.0 | 53 420 | -0.8 | 53 325 | -1.0 |
| April 2018 | 52 906 | -0.8 | 53 166 | -0.5 | 52 852 | -0.9 |
| May 2018 | 52 548 | -0.7 | 53 047 | -0.2 | 52 455 | -0.8 |
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