ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,241m in November 2010, a decrease of $70m on the surplus in October 2010.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,925m in November 2010, a decrease of $636m on the surplus in October 2010.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between October 2010 and November 2010 the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $208m (1%) to $24,378m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $7m to $24,440m. Non-rural goods rose $360m (2%), rural goods rose $24m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady. Non-monetary gold fell $325m (21%). Services credits fell $66m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $20m (1%) to $2,361m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $24m (1%) to $2,404m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, up $37m (4%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $35m (6%)
• wool and sheepskins, up $22m (11%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the cereal grains and cereal preparations component, down $69m (10%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $204m (1%) to $16,333m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $360m (2%) to $16,453m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $297m (5%)
• other mineral fuels, up $262m (16%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the coal, coke and briquettes component, down $190m (5%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities table at the end of this section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $6m (67%) to $3m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $27m (2%) to $1,268m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $325m (21%) to $1,229m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits fell $4m to $4,413m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $66m (1%) to $4,358m.

The main component contributing to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $67m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $69m (2%) to $2,887m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between October 2010 and November 2010 the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $139m (1%) to $22,136m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $629m (3%) to $22,515m. Capital goods rose $314m (8%), intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $260m (4%) and consumption goods rose $52m (1%). Non-monetary gold fell $14m (2%). Services debits rose $16m.


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $32m (1%) to $5,393m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $52m (1%) to $5,409m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, up $27m (2%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., up $20m (1%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $30m (1%) to $3,899m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $314m (8%) to $4,120m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $343m.

Partly offsetting this increase was the industrial transport equipment n.e.s. component, down $47m (8%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $96m (1%) to $7,514m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $260m (4%) to $7,586m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $339m (16%).

Partly offsetting this increase was the processed industrial supplies n.e.s. component, down $38m (2%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $21m (4%) to $504m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold debits fell $14m (2%) to $588m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits remained unchanged at $4,827m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $16m to $4,812m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $30m (1%).

Partly offsetting this rise was the maintenance and repair services n.i.e. component, down $15m (48%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $29m (1%) to $2,652m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Price and volume analysis: Recorded Trade Basis
		Jun 2010	Jul 2010	Aug 2010	Sep 2010	Oct 2010	Nov 2010
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore(a)
Lump
	Volumes	-4	2	-5	8	10	np
	Price	6	9	-2	-2	-11	np
Fines
	Volumes	11	-9	2	4	7	np
	Price	4	5	-3	-2	-11	np
Coal
Hard coking
	Volumes	9	-27	36	-11	-4	9
	Price	5	2	3	-4	-6	-7
Semi-soft
	Volumes	-3	-3	-10	-8	7	-4
	Price	9	1	2	-10	-	-7
Bituminous (Thermal)
	Volumes	15	4	4	7	-	-19
	Price	5	-2	-2	-1	-6	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
(a) The equivalent Balance of Payments series includes adjustments which impact on percentage change of prices for November 2010. For more information see Commodity prices adjustment for details.

On a recorded trade basis, between October and November 2010 exports of bituminous (thermal) coal fell $240m (19%), driven by volumes. Exports of semi-soft coal fell $78m (10%), with decreases in both volumes and prices. These falls were partly offset by hard coking coal which rose $16m (1%), with an increase in volumes and a decrease in prices.