This document was added or updated on 07/05/2007.
ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS
BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES
The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in March 2007 was a deficit of $1,172m, an increase of $13m on the deficit in February.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in March 2007 was a deficit of $1,622m, an increase of $894m on the deficit in February.
EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES
The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $62m between February and March to $18,190m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $793m (4%) to $17,839m. Non-rural goods fell $695m (6%), other goods fell $125m (11%) while rural goods rose $8m. Services credits rose $19m.
The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to March 2007 was a deficit of $3,193m, a decrease of $562m on the deficit of $3,755m for the three months to December 2006. However, if the seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the March quarter 2007 deficit was $3,310m, a decrease of $343m on the revised December quarter 2006 deficit of $3,653m.
Exports of goods
GOODS CREDITS
RURAL GOODS
The trend estimate of rural goods exports fell $18m (1%) to $2,060m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $8m to $2,083m.
The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:
- other rural, up $33m (4%)
- wool and sheepskins, up $8m (3%).
Largely offsetting these effects were:
- cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $19m (7%)
- meat and meat preparations, down $15m (2%).
In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $209m (11%) to $2,175m.
NON-RURAL GOODS
The trend estimate of non-rural goods exports rose $43m to $11,174m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $695m (6%) to $10,846m.
The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series were:
- metal ores and minerals, down $639m (20%). Cyclone activity in Western Australia had a significant impact on iron ore exports.
- other non-rural, down $92m (7%)
- other mineral fuels, down $74m (6%)
- metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $29m (2%).
Partly offsetting these effects were:
- other manufactures, up $71m (5%)
- machinery, up $44m (6%)
- coal, coke and briquettes, up $37m (2%).
In original terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $565m (6%) to $10,825m.
Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:
- metal ores and minerals, down $325m (11%), compared to an average February to March rise of 18% over the previous three years, with:
- non-agglomerated iron ore, down $221m (18%), with volumes down 16% and prices down 2%
- copper ore, down $79m (27%), with volumes down 23% and prices down 5%.
- other non-rural, up $45m (4%), compared to an average February to March rise of 21% over the previous three years.
OTHER GOODS
The trend estimate of other goods exports rose $17m (2%) to $1,037m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods fell $125m (11%) to $991m.
The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series was non-monetary gold, down $166m (17%), partly offset by goods for processing, up $33m (118%).
In original terms, exports of other goods fell $125m (11%) to $988m.
Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
In trend terms, services credits rose $19m to $3,918m.
Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $19m to $3,919m.
The components that contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- travel services, up $16m (1%)
- other services, up $3m.
Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits rose $18m (1%) to $2,519m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the series that comprise services credits.
IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES
The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $75m between February and March to $19,362m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $101m (1%) to $19,461m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $521m (8%) and capital goods rose $13m while other goods fell $206m (29%) and consumption goods fell $203m (4%). Services debits fell $23m (1%).
Preliminary analysis shows that, in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes increased about 2.9% during the March quarter 2007 and the implicit price deflator fell about 1.6%. In original terms, the Chain Laspeyres price index fell about 1.6% and the implicit price deflator fell about 1.1%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the March quarter 2007 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).
Imports of goods
GOODS DEBITS
CONSUMPTION GOODS
The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $27m (1%) to $4,773m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $203m (4%) to $4,691m.
The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- consumption goods n.e.s., down $148m (9%)
- textiles, clothing and footwear, down $33m (6%)
- food and beverages, mainly for consumption, down $23m (3%).
In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $31m (1%) to $4,409m.
CAPITAL GOODS
The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $19m (1%) to $3,600m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $13m to $3,589m.
The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- machinery and industrial equipment, up $48m (4%)
- capital goods n.e.s., up $41m (9%)
- telecommunications equipment, up $24m (6%).
Largely offsetting these effects were:
- civil aircraft, down $43m
- ADP equipment, down $38m (6%)
- industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $20m (3%).
In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $424m (14%) to $3,448m.
INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS
The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $53m (1%) to $6,747m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $521m (8%) to $7,036m.
The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- fuels and lubricants, up $342m (23%), with crude oil import volumes up 21% and prices up 6%
- other merchandise goods, up $195m (229%), driven by imports of military equipment
- iron and steel, up $41m (12%)
- other parts for capital goods, up $39m (4%).
Partly offsetting these effects were:
- processed industrial supplies, down $117m (7%)
- paper and paperboard, down $12m (6%).
In original terms, intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $1,002m (16%) to $7,166m.
OTHER GOODS
The trend estimate of imports of other goods fell $12m (2%) to $574m.
In both original and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits fell $206m (29%) to $515m.
The main component contributing to the fall in these estimates was non-monetary gold, down $293m (53%), partly offset by goods for processing, up $96m (331%).
Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
In trend terms, services debits fell $11m to $3,669m.
Seasonally adjusted, services debits fell $23m (1%) to $3,630m.
The components that contributed to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- travel services, down $24m (2%)
- other services, down $2m.
Partly offsetting these effects was transportation services, up $2m.
Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits rose $11m (1%) to $1,865m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the series that comprise services debits.
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