3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2007  
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/08/2007   
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JUNE KEY FIGURES

Jun '07
May '07 to Jun '07
Jun '06 to Jun '07
'000
% change
% change

Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend
477.2
-0.2
5.2
Seasonally adjusted
476.1
1.0
. .
Original
402.0
. .
. .
Short-term resident departures
Trend(a)
449.8
0.9
9.6
Seasonally adjusted
454.8
2.4
. .
Original
509.2
. .
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Break in trend series from December 2006.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term
Graph: Visitor arrivals, Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term
Graph: Resident departures, Short-term



JUNE KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

  • Trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during June 2007 (477,200 movements) changed little compared with May 2007 (478,200 movements). Over the past three months the trend estimate has remained stable.
  • Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 5.2% higher than in June 2006.
  • During June 2007, short-term resident departures (449,800 movements) increased by 0.9% compared with May 2007 (445,700 movements). This followed monthly increases of 1.3% for April 2007 and 1.2% for May 2007.
  • Short-term resident departures have continued to increase since the December 2006 trend series break.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
  • Seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals during June 2007 (476,100 movements) increased by 1.0% compared with May 2007. This followed monthly decreases of 5.4% for April 2007 and 0.9% for May 2007.
  • Short-term resident departures for June 2007 (454,800 movements) increased 2.4% compared with May 2007 (444,100 movements). The seasonally adjusted estimates for April 2007 and May 2007 changed little.


ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
  • In original movement terms, there were 402,000 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 509,200 short-term resident departures from Australia during June 2007.


NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE Release Date
July 2007 4 September 2007
August 2007 8 October 2007
September 2007 5 November 2007
October 2007 5 December 2007
November 2007 15 January 2008
December 2007 6 February 2008



EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for July 2007 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) website on 16 August 2007. These estimates can be accessed by going to the ABS website at <http://www.abs.gov.au>. Select All statistics - Access to all ABS products & statistics, then By Catalogue Number, then 3. Demography, then 34. Migration. Choose Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).



DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.


The statistics in this publication have been rounded to the nearest 100 for short-term movements and to the nearest 10 for permanent and long-term movements. As a result, sums of the components may not add exactly to totals. Analysis featured in the Key Points and Main Features of this publication is based on unrounded data. Calculations made on rounded data may differ to those published.



CHANGES IN THE ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.



FORTHCOMING ISSUES

Annual seasonal adjustment reanalysis: The annual reanalysis of short-term visitor arrivals and short-term resident departures will be undertaken after the release of this issue. Any revisions to the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates series will be incorporated with the release of July 2007 data.


Introduction of ARIMA modelling techniques: Recently, the ABS has implemented improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by the use of ARIMA modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process. The Overseas Arrivals and Departures collection will use, from the 2007 annual seasonal reanalysis, concurrent seasonal adjustment with ARIMA modelling where applicable to reduce the level of revision to seasonally adjusted short-term overseas arrivals and departures estimates.



INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.