MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during July 2009 (446,500 movements) decreased 1.3% when compared with June 2009 (452,500 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3.8% lower than in July 2008.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during July 2009. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for July 2009 and July 2008 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Malaysia (39.7%) while the highest percentage decrease was recorded by Japan (37.7%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - July 2009
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Jun 09 to Jul 09	Jul 08 to Jul 09
Source countries(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	86.9	87.5	104.4	-1.7	-5.5
United States of America	38.2	38.7	47.4	0.7	1.7
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	57.2	53.9	39.1	0.2	3.0
China	24.9	25.7	30.6	-7.3	-13.5
Japan	24.1	22.6	21.3	-7.3	-37.7
Singapore	23.5	22.6	18.7	-1.1	2.1
Korea	15.3	15.0	17.0	-0.5	-21.4
Malaysia	19.2	18.0	14.5	0.1	39.7
Germany	13.4	13.5	14.1	0.8	5.5
Hong Kong	12.1	12.2	13.8	-3.6	0.7
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:

1 The August seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than July.
2 The August seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than July.

The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

The trend estimates series has been suspended for April 2009 and onwards. For further information please see the SUSPENSION OF SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES TREND ESTIMATES section on the NOTES page of this issue.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during July 2009.

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - July 2009
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Jun 09 to Jul 09	Jul 08 to Jul 09
Destination countries(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	np	97.0	89.5	np	np
Indonesia	np	44.5	52.2	np	np
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	np	43.1	50.0	np	np
United States of America	np	56.1	49.8	np	np
Thailand	np	30.1	32.6	np	np
Fiji	np	24.3	25.7	np	np
Malaysia	np	18.9	20.5	np	np
Singapore	np	16.9	19.1	np	np
China	np	23.6	18.2	np	np
Hong Kong	np	16.2	13.3	np	np
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 11,170 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during July 2009, a decrease of 2.5% compared with July 2008 (11,460 movements). People born in India accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (12.1%), followed by people born in China (11.8%), the UK, CIs & IOM (11.4%) and New Zealand (10.9%).

There were 6,770 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during July 2009, an increase of 5.2% compared with July 2008 (6,430 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.