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7104.0.55.002 - Agriculture in Focus: Farmers' Perception of a Change in Climate, 2006-07  
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 17/08/2009  First Issue
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2. FARM BUSINESS CHARACTERISTICS

STATE

As climate across Australia's different geographic zones can vary markedly, especially the incidence of extreme weather phenomena, location has an influence on how land managers perceive whether climate affecting their holding has changed.

On a state basis, survey results showed that 74% of Victoria's land managers considered the climate affecting their holding had changed, the highest rate in the country.

Analysis of the location variable supports this observation and shows that, compared to Victoria (as the base category), land managers in all states except Tasmania were less likely to perceive the climate affecting their holding had changed (NT 79%, WA 48%, QLD 46%, NSW 36%, SA 26%). An alternate interpretation is that Victorian land managers are: 1.36 times more likely than South Australian land managers; 1.55 times more likely than New South Wales land managers; 1.87 times more likely than Queensland land managers; 1.93 times more likely than Western Australian land managers; and more than 4.7 times more likely than Northern Territory land managers to perceive that the climate on their holding had changed.

The odds ratios for managers in Tasmania are no more or less likely to perceive the climate affecting this holding had changed than managers in Victoria.


Explanatory variableCategoryBase categoryOdds ratio95% Confidence limits

StateNSW (including ACT)Victoria0.6440.580, 0.716
QLD0.5350.478, 0.600
SA0.7380.648, 0.840
WA0.5160.451, 0.589
TAS0.836#0.697, 1.003
NT0.2140.164, 0.278

# not significant

SIZE OF HOLDING BY AREA

There does not appear to be a consistent pattern between the size of the holding and the land mangers perception that climate affecting their holding has changed. Nevertheless, there are some interesting results.

The analysis found that land managers of properties with an area of holding in the range 500 hectares to 1,000 hectares were 21% more likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than the land managers of very small holdings (base category of < 50 hectares). Smaller holdings (50 hectares to 500 hectares) and mid-range holdings (1,000 hectares to 5,000 hectares and 5,000 hectares to 10,000 hectares) were no more or less likely to perceive the climate affecting their holding had changed than those on very small holdings (base category of < 50 hectares).

However, land managers of properties with an area of holding in the range 10,000 hectares to 50,000 hectares and greater than 50,000 hectares were less likely to perceive the climate affecting their holding had changed (30% and 20% respectively).


Explanatory variableCategoryBase categoryOdds ratio95% Confidence limits

Area of Holding(*Question 5)50 to 500 haless than 50 ha1.070#0.963, 1.188
500 to 1 000 ha1.2141.040, 1.418
1 000 to 5 000 ha1.072#0.926, 1.240
5 000 to 10 000 ha0.922#0.749, 1.134
10 000 to 50 000 ha0.6950.574, 0.842
>50 000 ha0.7950.633, 0.999

* Relates to the Question number on the 2006-07 NRM survey form shown at Appendix 1
# not significant

ESTIMATED VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS (EVAO) OF HOLDING

Does the financial situation of a farm business influence the farm managers perception that the climate affecting the holding has changed? For this analysis, the Estimated Value of Agricultural Operations (a proxy for turnover) was used as a financial indicator of farm size, with units being grouped into eight 'farm size' categories.

Results from the analysis showed that land managers of businesses with EVAO in the smaller ranges i.e. less than or equal to $49,999, $50,000 to $99,999, $100,000 to $149,999, $150,000 to $199,999 and $200,000 to $349,999 are around 40% more likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than those on farms with EVAO greater than $2,000,000.

Managers of businesses with EVAO in the ranges $350,000 to $499,999, $500,000 to $999,999 and $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 are no more or less likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than land managers on farms with EVAO greater than $2,000,000 (base category).


Explanatory variableCategoryBase categoryOdds ratio95% Confidence limits

Farm size (according to <= $49 999>= $2 000 0001.3751.163, 1.627
the standard range$50 000 to $99 9991.4221.193, 1.694
of EVAO)$100 000 to $149 9991.5011.250, 1.803
$150 000 to $199 9991.4041.153, 1.708
$200 000 to $349 9991.3051.104, 1.542
$350 000 to $499 9991.155#0.961, 1.387
$500 000 to $999 9991.052#0.893, 1.238
$1 000 000 to $1 999 9991.039#0.871, 1.239

# not significant

INDUSTRY

Analysis of the responses on an industry basis did not show a clear pattern. Farm businesses classified to the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industry Classification (ANZSIC) ‘Other Crop Growing’, which includes 'Sugarcane Growing', 'Cotton Growing' and crop growing other than grain growing, were 32% less likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than businesses classified to the ‘Sheep, Beef Cattle and Grain Farming’ industry (base category).

‘Poultry farming’ businesses were also less likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than businesses classified to ‘Sheep, Beef Cattle and Grain Farming’ (base category).

Farm businesses classified to ‘Other Livestock Farming’ e.g. horse farming, pig farming, and bee keeping, were more likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than farm businesses who operated in the industry ‘Sheep, Beef and Grain Farming’ (base category).

For all other industry classifications, farm businesses were no more or less likely to perceive that the climate affecting their holding had changed than the base category.


Explanatory variableCategoryBase categoryOdds ratio95% Confidence limits

Industry (Groups)Nursery and Floriculture
Production (011)
Sheep, Beef Cattle and Grain Farming (014)1.021#0.810, 1.285
Mushroom and Vegetable Growing (012)0.903#0.761, 1.073
Fruit and Tree Nut Growing (013)1.128#0.985, 1.293
Other Crop Growing (015)0.6790.579, 0.797
Dairy Cattle Farming (016)1.094#0.910, 1.316
Poultry Farming (017)0.6550.503, 0.852
Deer Farming (018)1.442#0.622, 3.346
Other Livestock Farming (019)1.2131.013, 1.453
Industries other than Agriculture
i.e. agricultural production is secondary
0.948#0.839, 1.070

# not significant



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