6401.0 - Consumer Price Index, Australia, Sep 2018 Quality Declaration 
Latest ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 31/10/2018   
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MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO CHANGE


CPI GROUPS

The discussion of the CPI groups below is ordered in terms of their absolute significance to the change in All groups index points for the quarter (see Tables 6 and 7). Unless otherwise stated, the analysis is in original terms.

Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter
Graph: Weighted average of eight capital cities, Percentage change from previous quarter



RECREATION AND CULTURE GROUP (+1.6%)

The main contributors to the rise in the recreation and culture group this quarter are international holiday travel and accommodation (+4.3%) and domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+2.4%). The rise in international holiday travel and accommodation is due to the summer peak seasons in Europe and America.

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the recreation and culture group rose 1.2%. The main contributor to the rise is domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+7.4%).

In the CPI, airfares and accommodation are collected in advance (at the time of payment), but are only used in the CPI in the quarter in which the trip is undertaken. International airfares are collected two months in advance (July for travel in September) and domestic airfares are collected one month in advance (August for travel in September).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the recreation and culture group rose 0.6% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+2.2%).


FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES GROUP (-1.2%)

The main contributor to the fall in the furnishings, household equipment and services group this quarter is child care (-11.8%). The fall in child care is due to the introduction of the Child Care Subsidy from 2 July 2018, which replaced the Child Care Rebate and Child Care Benefit.

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the furnishings, household equipment and services group fell 2.0%. The main contributor to the fall is child care (-8.5%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the furnishings, household equipment and services group fell 1.8% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is child care (-13.0%).


ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO GROUP (+1.3%)

The main contributor to the rise in the alcohol and tobacco group this quarter is tobacco (+1.8%). The rise in tobacco is due to the effects of the 12.5% federal excise tax increase and the further increase based on the Average Weekly Ordinary Time Earnings (AWOTE), effective 1 September 2018.

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 6.8%. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+14.0%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the alcohol and tobacco group rose 1.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is tobacco (+2.5%).


HOUSING GROUP (+0.4%)

The main contributors to the rise in the housing group this quarter are the other housing sub-group (+1.5%), driven by property rates and charges (+2.3%) and utilities (+0.8%), driven by water and sewerage (+1.3%), gas and other household fuels (+1.1%) and electricity (+0.4%).

The rise in the housing group is the lowest September quarter rise since 1998, and is due to subdued results in the utilities, rents and property rates and charges. September quarters typically observe price changes in utilities and annual changes in property rates and charges. The modest rise in property rates reflects rate caps in some cities and a lower inflationary environment.

Utilities has been impacted by modest rises in electricity prices this quarter. In 2018, stabilising wholesale costs and retail competition have led to subdued rises in electricity prices for households, whereas strong rises in wholesale costs in the eastern and southern states drove electricity price rises in 2016 and 2017.

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the housing group rose 1.6%. The main contributor to the rise is new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+2.0%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the housing group fell 0.2% this quarter. The main contributor to the fall is electricity (-2.0%).


TRANSPORT GROUP (+0.8%)

The main contributor to the rise in the transport group this quarter is automotive fuel (+1.4%) due to continued increases in world oil prices flowing through to consumers. Automotive fuel fell in July (-2.0%) and August (-0.1%) and rose in September (+5.2%), to reach its highest quarterly price index level since 2014.

The following graph shows the pattern of the average daily prices for unleaded petrol for the eight capital cities over the past fifteen months.

AVERAGE PRICE OF UNLEADED PETROL (91 OCTANE), cents per litre
Graph: AVERAGE PRICE OF UNLEADED PETROL (91 OCTANE), cents per litre


Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the transport group rose 6.0%. The main contributor to the rise is automotive fuel (+20.8%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the transport group rose 0.5% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is automotive fuel (+1.4%).


FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES GROUP (+0.5%)

The main contributors to the rise in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group this quarter are fruit (+2.4%) and vegetables (+1.6%). Adverse weather conditions earlier in the year have impacted the supply of fruit and vegetables, leading to an increase in prices.

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 1.6%. The main contributor to the rise is fruit (+6.1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the food and non-alcoholic beverages group rose 0.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is vegetables (+2.2%).


COMMUNICATION GROUP (-1.4%)

The main contributor to the fall in the communication group this quarter is telecommunication equipment and services (-1.5%).

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the communication group fell 4.3%. The main contributor to the fall is telecommunication equipment and services (-4.7%).

The communication group is not seasonally adjusted.


INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (+0.5%)

The main contributor to the rise in the insurance and financial services group this quarter is other financial services (+0.5%). The rise in other financial services is due to rises in taxes on transfers.

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the insurance and financial services group rose 1.4%. The main contributor to the rise is insurance (+4.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the insurance and financial services group rose 0.4% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is other financial services (+0.4%).


HEALTH GROUP (-0.4%)

The main contributor to the fall in the health group this quarter is pharmaceutical products (-1.1%). The fall is due to the cyclical effect of a greater proportion of consumers who qualify for subsidies under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), reducing their out-of-pocket expenses.

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the health group rose 3.2%. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+4.1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the health group rose 0.8% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is medical and hospital services (+1.2%).


CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR GROUP (+0.2%)

The main contributor to the rise in the clothing and footwear group this quarter is garments for men (+1.5%).

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the clothing and footwear group fell 0.8%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the clothing and footwear group rose 0.1% this quarter. The main contributor to the rise is garments for men (+1.5%).


EDUCATION GROUP (+0.1%)

The main contributor to the rise in the education group this quarter is tertiary education (+0.9%).

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the education group rose 2.8%. The main contributors to the rise are secondary education (+3.3%) and tertiary education (+2.3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, the education group rose 1.0% this quarter. The main contributors to the rise are tertiary education (+1.6%) and secondary education (+1.1%).


INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPOSURE - TRADABLES AND NON-TRADABLES

The tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.8% in the September quarter 2018. The tradable goods component rose 0.4% due to automotive fuel (+1.4%), fruit (+2.4%), furniture (+1.9%), and vegetables (+1.6%). The tradable services component rose 4.0% due to international holiday travel and accommodation (+4.3%).

The non-tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.3% in September quarter 2018. The non-tradable goods component rose 0.5% due to tobacco (+1.8%), beer (+0.9%) and takeaway and fast foods (+0.7%). The non-tradable services component rose 0.1% due to domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+2.4%) and property rates and charges (+2.3%).

Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the tradables component rose 1.4% and the non-tradables component rose 2.2%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the tradables component of the All groups CPI rose 0.1% and the non-tradables component rose 0.2%.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANALYTICAL SERIES

The All group CPI seasonally adjusted rose 0.1% this quarter, and the original All groups CPI recorded a 0.4% rise.

The trimmed mean rose 0.4% in September quarter 2018, following a revised rise of 0.4% in the June quarter 2018. Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the trimmed mean rose 1.8%, following a revised rise of 1.8% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2018.

The weighted median rose 0.3% in September quarter 2018, following a revised rise of 0.4% in the June quarter 2018. Over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018, the weighted median rose 1.7%, following a revised rise of 1.7% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2018.

ORIGINAL
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Jun Qtr 2018 to Sep Qtr 2018
Jun Qtr 2018 to Sep Qtr 2018
%
%

All groups CPI
0.4
0.1
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
0.5
0.1
Alcohol and tobacco
1.3
1.5
Clothing and footwear
0.2
0.1
Housing
0.4
-0.2
Furnishings, household equipment and services
-1.2
-1.8
Health
-0.4
0.8
Transport
0.8
0.5
Communication(a)
-1.4
-1.4
Recreation and culture
1.6
0.6
Education
0.1
1.0
Insurance and financial services
0.5
0.4
International trade exposure series
Tradables
0.8
0.1
Non-tradables
0.3
0.2

(a) not seasonally adjusted

A detailed explanation of the seasonal adjustment of the All Groups CPI and calculation of the trimmed mean and weighted median measures is available in Information Paper: Seasonal Adjustment of Consumer Price Indexes, 2011 (cat. no. 6401.0.55.003) available on the ABS website. Revisions to the seasonally adjusted estimates can be the result of the application of concurrent seasonal adjustment, described in paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.